First of all, I’d like to thank Boise State for beating Virginia Tech 33-30 and getting my betting season off to a great start. I’m a fantasy football statistic freak and addict to all things NFL. I’m an amateur gamblers who makes smart, educated guesses on the outcome of NFL games with the help of my in-depth fantasy football knowledge.
I’ve switched up this year and will now be wagering with Bodog.com. If you’ve forgotten or you’re new to this, I’ll explain some of the terms. The team expected to win aka (the favorite) always has a (-). This means if you see – Saints (-6) vs Vikings, the Saints are expected to win by more than 6 points. Thus, if you bet on the Saints, take the final score and subtract 6 points. If the Saints still win, then you win.
On the other side, the team expected to lose (the underdog) always has a (+) next to their name. If you pick the underdog, you get to add the point spread to the final score. The point spread is the number next to the (+) or (-) symbol.
Thus for the first game – we say, “The Saints will beat the Vikings by 6 or more points” and it’s presented like this :
Vikings at Saints (-6)
And that just happens to be the actual spread as I write this. First games for Superbowl champions can be tricky, especially since this is a rematch of the NFC Championship game. The pre-game celebrations could be a distraction and the Vikings feel they have something to prove. It boils down to one thing for me, the loss of Sidney Rice is bigger than the loss of Darren Sharper. I’m taking the Saints and to make this a can’t lose scenario, I suggest you use a 6 point teaser and select the Saints.
Teaser bets move the point spread to your favor. The Saints are a 6 point favorite. If I tease it, I get 6 points in my favor, which means the Saints become an even bet. Thus, if I pick the Saints, they only have to win the game!
If the Saints were favored by 3 (-3) and I teased them 6 points, then the Saints would become an underdog by (+3) points. Now the Saints can lose by 2 points and I would still win the bet!
Panthers at Giants (-7) – Matt Moore, former Dallas Cowboys QB, looked great at the end of last season. The Giants collapsed big time at the end of last season and were embarrased 44-9, if I remember right, by the Panthers. I know the Giants are opening a new stadium and the Panthers don’t have Peppers anymore, but I believe 7 points is too generous. I would take the Panthers(+7).
Dolphins at Bills (+3) – This is shocking, I can’t believe the Dolphins are only a 3 point favorite. Chad Henne, lit up the league with, I believe 5 – 300 yard passing games at the end of the season. This isn’t the Wildcat only team that people focus on, they have a real QB and WR with Brandon Marshall. C.J. Spiller won’t be enough to save the Bills this week. Take the Dolphins.
Falcons at Steelers (+2.5) – I like the Falcons as a team. It’s hard to knock anyone following the “Triplets” formula of QB, WR & RB. But the Falcons were hurt most with a porous pass defense and I didn’t see them address that in the off-season. Meanwhile, the Steelers bring their consistently great defense and I believe that the scrambling ability of Dennis Dixon will be the difference in this game. Mike Wallace will be a nice replacement for Santonio Holmes – he was on my fantasy league team late last year. Take the Steelers.
Lions at Bears (-6.5) – This is going to be one of my upset picks. Mainly because the Bears haven’t shown me anything this off-season and have a new offensive co-ordinator with Mike Martz. I think Jahvid Best gives the Lions an explosive rushing attack and they have weapons at WR (Calvin Johnson, ring a bell?) and TE. I’m not saying they’re a playoff team, but they will get their wins this season and this game will be one of them. Take the Lions!
Bengals at Patriots (-4.5) – This was a tough one. I was going to stay away from it until I learned that the Patriots are starting two inexperienced cornerbacks against T.O and Ochocinco. These Bengals aren’t a pushover, they swept the Steelers, Browns and Ravens last year. They have a top 10 defense and I fully expect them to pull out a victory this game. Take the Bengals!
Browns at Buccaneers (-3) – Who’s giving these point spreads? Tampa is in year two of it’s rebuilding process and lost wide receiver Antonio Bryant to free agency. The Browns are a tough, physical football team that will pound the rock between the numbers with Jerome Harrison. I expect him to put up 120 yards or more because with Jake DelHomme from the Panthers, defenses will stay honest. Jake seems much more relaxed playing pitch and catch with his receivers instead of forcing the ball to Steve Smith. Take the Browns!
Broncos at Jaguars (-3) – I have a love/hate relationship with the Jaguars. When I expect them to win, they get blown out. I’m a little too close to the action, since I live in Jaguarville, but I’m not sipping the Kool-Aid. I believe the Broncos travel to Florida and leave with a win because they have better players at the skill positions. Local news has been reporting that Jones-Drew has been having knee problems. With him and Moreno being equal, the Broncos are better everywhere else. Take the Broncos!
Colts at Texans (+2.5) – Two words – Arian Foster. These two teams battle and put up outrageous numbers. However, the Colts are champs of the division for a reason. I expect a very close game and would take the Texans with a 6 point tease.
Raiders at Titans (-6.5) – Last season, this was a sure bet. However, with Jason Campbell at the helm for the Raiders, I’m not so quick to pull the trigger anymore. Remember, this is the same Raiders team that beat the Eagles and a few other teams last year. The thing that worries me about the Titans, even tho they turned it around and went 8-2 to end the season. I’m not comfortable with the Titan’s wide receivers. Kenny Britt has a chance to be a star and has shown flashes, but let’s be honest, this is Chris Johnson’s offense and the Raiders front seven won’t be made of wet toilet paper. I suggest taking the Raiders with a 6 point tease.
Packers at Eagles (+3) – The Eagles are an underdog for a reason. I generally think the Eagles are a safe bet, but not this week. I expect Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense to come in, firing on all cylinders. It may not be pretty and don’t be surprised if the crowd doesn’t start chanting for McNabb! Obviously, take the Packers!
49′ers at Seahawks (+3) – If I could get away with betting my son’s college fund on a game – it would be this one. I don’t want to say Alex Smith is inaccurate like JaMarcus Russell at times, but sometimes his passing reminds me of the A-Team’s shootouts. Face it, Josh Morgan, Crabtree, Davis and Gore have become enough to defeat Pete Carroll’s Seahawks on opening day. Take the 49′ers.
Cardinals at Rams (+4) – Big Upset alert! I have zero faith in Derek Anderson quarterbacking for the Cardinals. If they pull off a victory, it will be due to the Cardinals defensive play. I like Danny Amendola and Mark Clayton, but a rookie QB’s best friend is the running game and here comes Jackson. I totally expect the home field advantage to help push them over the top. I’ll take the Rams, especially with a 6 point tease.
Cowboys at Redskins (+3.5) – I’m a Cowboys fan. ‘Nuff said. Seriously, the Redskins actually had a top rated defense, they just couldn’t score any points. That was a fault of Jim Zorn, who at times, seemed to rely on trick plays more than a solid offensive gameplan. The Cowboys won both games last season and I never bet with my heart when my money’s involved, but the Cowboys have more talent on both sides of the ball. I’m taking the Cowboys.
Ravens at Jets (-2.5) – Why are the Jets a favorite? Everyone thinks they’re a Superbowl powerhouse contending team, but they only got into the playoffs because the Colts decided they didn’t want to go 19-0. Sometimes, perception overrides reality and this may be the case with the Jets. I’ll take the Ravens.
Chargers at Chiefs (+5) – Even if you teased this game for the Chiefs you’d styll lose! A running game is a great weapon, unfortunately, Jamaal Charles will not be able to save the Chiefs. I like Floyd and Crayton at the WR positions, but Antonio Gates is the leading receiver for the Chargers. Norv Turner and the Chargers take the easy win and start the season off right.
That’s all the games.. Agree, disagree.. Know something I don’t?? Defend your team?? … Feel free to leave a comment.
Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose! As always, wager at your own risk.
All bets were teased 6 points… A $10 bet wins me $45. I feel like I should’ve bet more!
Saints (0), Dolphins (+3), Browns(+9), 49′ers (+3), Chargers (+1)
~Game
